EXPERIMENT RECIPES
One question.
A fresh experiment.
Copy each block into its corresponding wheel. Applying a recipe starts a new set of trial counts.
01 / Two fair coins
Use this block in both wheels:
Heads | 1 Tails | 1
Question: how often do the results match? Heads + Heads and Tails + Tails each have probability 1/4. Together, matching has probability 1/2.
02 / A weighted scenario
Wheel A:
Clear | 3 Rain | 1
Wheel B:
Walk | 2 Cycle | 1 Bus | 1
Question: how often is the combination Rain + Bus selected? Under this deliberately independent toy model, the probability is 1/16. Actual transport choices can depend on weather, so do not treat this model as a real forecast.
03 / Three signals
Choose three wheels and use this block in each:
On | 4 Off | 1
Question: what is the probability all three are on? It is (4/5)³ = 64/125, or 51.2%. Try predicting the probability of at least one off before running the batch.