EXPERIMENT RECIPES

One question.
A fresh experiment.

Copy each block into its corresponding wheel. Applying a recipe starts a new set of trial counts.

01 / Two fair coins

Use this block in both wheels:

Heads | 1
Tails | 1

Question: how often do the results match? Heads + Heads and Tails + Tails each have probability 1/4. Together, matching has probability 1/2.

02 / A weighted scenario

Wheel A:

Clear | 3
Rain | 1

Wheel B:

Walk | 2
Cycle | 1
Bus | 1

Question: how often is the combination Rain + Bus selected? Under this deliberately independent toy model, the probability is 1/16. Actual transport choices can depend on weather, so do not treat this model as a real forecast.

03 / Three signals

Choose three wheels and use this block in each:

On | 4
Off | 1

Question: what is the probability all three are on? It is (4/5)³ = 64/125, or 51.2%. Try predicting the probability of at least one off before running the batch.

Build your experiment